Price Transmission in Conflict-Affected States: Evidence from Cereal Markets of Somalia

Abstract How integrated are agricultural markets in conflict-affected states? We answer this question by examining the dynamics of monthly price series rice, maize and sorghum across eleven cities (markets) Somalia. Using conflict as a source transaction costs between spatially connected markets, we examine its role transmission panel smooth transition regression framework. find that case rice—an imported cereal grain—conflict tends to reduce speed markets. By contrast, no evidence conflict-related sorghum—commodities locally produced, particularly central southern parts In all instances, there is some degree spatial integration among around country, perhaps partly due informal institutions can bridge divides created conflict, distance internal political fragmentation. These findings add crucial detail literature concerned with commodity prices on poverty food security states.